Today they announced they took out a 250 million loan to expand trading capital (while earnings were unfortunately disappointing). The model should be viewed as a framework of understanding this company, the growth might be higher or lower, only time will tell.
Not to be witty but how can one arrive at a ‘bearish’ case in which share price grows ‘more modestly’ to EUR 68 end 2031? Note that is triple the current share price so an irr of about 20% over 6 years. And in that bear scenario there is also a dividend it reads.
Fine to make such statements but let’s then also include the breakdown in the article.
Really clear breakdown of the market maker's role and the critical link between trading capital and liquidity provision. It's a useful macro view of how liquidity is engineered in public markets. TCLM explores the parallel, operational side - how trade credit terms, receivables management, and working capital strategy function as the internal "market making" that determines a company's liquidity and cash flow resilience. Might be a helpful complement.
indeed, trading capital may have grown on average 12.8% every 6 months during the 12(!) month period ranging from july 2024 to july 2025.
However, it does not make any sense to assume that trading capital will accordingly grow with same percentage for the next 5 years.
Today they announced they took out a 250 million loan to expand trading capital (while earnings were unfortunately disappointing). The model should be viewed as a framework of understanding this company, the growth might be higher or lower, only time will tell.
Not to be witty but how can one arrive at a ‘bearish’ case in which share price grows ‘more modestly’ to EUR 68 end 2031? Note that is triple the current share price so an irr of about 20% over 6 years. And in that bear scenario there is also a dividend it reads.
Fine to make such statements but let’s then also include the breakdown in the article.
Really clear breakdown of the market maker's role and the critical link between trading capital and liquidity provision. It's a useful macro view of how liquidity is engineered in public markets. TCLM explores the parallel, operational side - how trade credit terms, receivables management, and working capital strategy function as the internal "market making" that determines a company's liquidity and cash flow resilience. Might be a helpful complement.
(It’s free)- https://tradecredit.substack.com/
I’m long Flow Traders—currently my largest portfolio position(https://www.moatmind.com/p/september-2025-portfolio-update-ytd). You can also check my deep dive(https://www.moatmind.com/p/flow-traders-stock-analysis).
Methodologically, if you model capital growth, you’re inherently modeling earnings, since retained earnings are what compound into capital.